Instead of dialing one of the numerous psychic hotlines to
determine what the future holds for physicians, I picked up a copy of an American Medical
Association publication An Environmental Analysis, a report designed
to assist in planning for the future. Based on health care trends, the following is the
predicted impact for physicians:
- Physicians in training today, except those entering pediatrics, will spend 50% of
their time treating patients over 65.
- Physicians will see increasing numbers of patients with several chronic diseases. These
patients will require improved coordination of care and, therefore physicians will have to
spend more time coordinating care. Payment to the physician for coordinating this care
will become an increasing issue.
- Physicians will experience increased pressure from baby boomers to increase quality and
decrease costs.
- Physicians will face increased pressure to practice population-based preventive medicine
such as administering immunizations, reducing personal risk-taking, and detecting risk
factors.
- Physician involvement in school-based health clinics will become a common strategy for
providing care to underserved children and adolescents.
- Physicians will treat more non-English-speaking patients, which may introduce third
party intermediaries between the physician and patient.
- Physicians will be under pressure from health plans to improve communications with
patients in a cost-effective manner. They not only will need to tailor communications for
low-literacy patients, but also understand multicultural and multilingual demands.
- Physicians will be treating patients with pre-symptomatic illness, diffusing the age
specific orientation to disease and moving disease management to a life time coordination
of care.
- Physicians will need expanded education regarding the impact of the Human Genome Project
on human health, the appropriate use of genetic testing, and the provision of adequate
counseling and support for patients regarding test results. A need to be informed on
ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic testing will continue.
- CME will be increasingly important because of the Human Genome project, increased
patient access to health information and direct marketing by pharmaceutical companies to
patients.
- Public Health programs at all levels will be under increased pressure to expand their
activities.
- Health disparities will challenge local and national government programs and alter
patterns of health care.
I would recommend that each of you obtain a copy of this 30-page very well done and to
the point publication by the American Medical Association. Again, the title is An
Environmental Analysis: Trends, Impacts, and Opportunities. You may obtain a
copy of the report directly from the AMA, or better
yet members can e-mail me at evp@dcmsonline.org
and I will see that you get a copy.
August, 2000/ Jacksonville Medicine
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