Thank you for the responses on last month's report on future predictions based
upon the American Medical Association publication -- An Environmental Analysis Impacts,
and Opportunities. Because many of you requested a second session with the crystal
ball, I have consulted with the American Association of
Medical Society Executives (AAMSE) Futures Committee. They have done a good job in
identifying trends and issues that will affect medical societies and medical society
management. If you want additional information after reading this article, you will find
it in the American Association of Medical Society Executives publication Trends
Identification (DRAFT) May 2000. Scope Of Practice
- The definition of scope of practice will change. (AAMSE for the purpose of this exercise
refers to the scope of practice to competition between physicians and other health
professionals, such as nurse practitioners, physician assistants, optometrists,
chiropractors and pharmacists, for state recognition, i.e., licensure, as providers of
specified medical services.)
- Non-physicians are assuming areas of practice currently done by medical specialists,
leading to physicians' loss of control in providing medical care.
- National licensure of physicians and allied professionals is a possibility, which would
lead to a changing role for state and specialty medical societies in this area.
Turf Issues
- The demands for physicians and group practices to increase revenue and productivity
lends itself to competition among specialties over institutional credentialing for
privileges to perform the same procedures on the same condition.
- As the healthcare dollar becomes more limited, it will cause more competition among
specialists, and access that is more limited to specialists.
- Technological advances, consumer preferences, and cost pressures could lead to
restrictive licensing.
Emergence Of Alternative Medicine
- Embracing less expensive alternative medicine by payers may exert downward pressure on
reimbursement rates and, by extension, on physician income.
- Because alternative medicine wrests more decision-making control from physicians and
empowers lay people and alternative practitioners, it may contribute to feelings of
frustration and powerlessness among physicians.
- As the relationship between traditional and alternative medicine grows stronger,
physicians may feel the need to learn more about these alternative approaches.
- The debate about the efficacy and safety of alternative medicine will fragment the
medical community in new ways, making it harder to build consensus around important
issues.
- As alternative medicine grows, there will be concurrent growth in alternative medical
societies aimed at physicians, resulting in even more competition for traditional medical
societies for the time, dollars and loyalty of physicians.
Changing Dynamics Of Volunteer Involvement
- Demographic trends indicate that the number of members willing to volunteer their time
and expertise will continue to decline.
- Fewer members are making long-term volunteer commitments than in previous years, leading
to fewer people seeking out top leadership roles.
- Creators of intellectual property are beginning to consider compensation before they
commit to any project.
Competition For Physician Participation
- Deunification of state and county membership is being considered in more states.
- Squabbling among medical societies may turn off members and potential members.
- Competition among medical societies for physician participation continues to increase at
the same time that new competition from outside emerges as a critical factor.
- It will be a constant challenge to frame issues as patient care concerns in order to
maintain public and professional trust and confidence.
The bottom line is that we must be sharply aware of future trends and willing to make
necessary changes. We must stay on the cutting edge of change to assure the future of
quality medical care and to ensure that the profession continues.
September, 2000/ Jacksonville Medicine
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